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Japan's underlying inflation measure accelerates to 3.2%

The September increase was the largest since October 2023, ahead of a BOJ meeting expected to leave interest rates at 1.25%.

Illustration of Japanese yen banknotes beside an inflation chart
Photo: CNA

An inflation gauge compiled by the Bank of Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in September, up from 2.6% in August, according to figures issued October 27. The increase was the strongest since October 2023.

The figures arrive before a two-day policy meeting at which the BOJ is expected to hold its interest rate at 1.25%. The central bank is also expected to indicate its willingness to increase borrowing costs further as inflation risks mount.

Designed to track price pressures linked to domestic demand, the BOJ gauge removes education and energy subsidies alongside other temporary government measures. By contrast, the government's core consumer inflation measure omits volatile fresh food prices but includes the impact of subsidies.

A separate BOJ measure of business-to-business service prices recorded a 3.7% annual increase for September, following August's revised 3.5% rise. Ocean freight transport costs climbed 97.7%, contributing to the increase as yen weakness and conflict in the Middle East pushed up fuel import costs.

Kenichiro Ahara, an economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said companies were passing higher costs through to business customers, reflecting strong wage negotiation outcomes. The BOJ says underlying inflation informs its decisions about the timing and pace of additional rate increases.

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About the author

Ananya Iyer

Economy & Policy Editor

Edits and reviews stories on the economy and economic policy: growth, inflation, jobs, central banks, the IMF and World Bank, fiscal and trade policy, and regulators' rules.