IMF sees Kazakhstan growth accelerating in 2027 after 2026 slowdown

The International Monetary Fund projects Kazakhstan’s economic growth at 4.4% for 2026 and 4.9% for 2027 in its World Economic Outlook published in October. Both forecasts are below the country’s 6.5% expansion in 2025.

For the IMF’s wider Middle East and Central Asia group, the outlook puts economic activity down 0.3% in 2026, followed by growth of 6.3% in 2027. The fund expects commodity prices, money sent home by migrants and continuing reforms to support economies across the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The Strait of Hormuz closure in March interrupted shipments equivalent to approximately 20 million barrels a day, around 20% of worldwide oil supply. Kazakhstan was among the producers that raised output to help make up the shortfall. The IMF bases its outlook on the strait reopening in March 2027, followed by a wider restoration of pre-war conditions by October 2027.

Technology demand presents another potential source of support. The IMF said commodity exporters including Kazakhstan could benefit from demand for raw materials used in advanced hardware such as semiconductors. It cautioned, however, that energy constraints and safety concerns could restrict further expansion of artificial intelligence investment.

The fund’s worldwide growth forecasts are 3.1% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, following 3.5% in 2025. It also expects global headline inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions renew price pressure, then ease to 4.1% in 2027.