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South Korea's third-quarter growth seen at 0.7% in economist poll

Record September exports supported the outlook, while economists raised concerns about dependence on semiconductors and uneven domestic demand.

Semiconductor wafers displayed inside a chip manufacturing facility
Photo: CNA

South Korea's economy is estimated to have expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in July-September, supported by semiconductor shipments and investment linked to artificial intelligence, a poll of economists showed. That would mark a modest acceleration from the second quarter's 0.6% growth.

The median estimate came from 16 economists surveyed October 14-23, with forecasts ranging from 0.5% to 1.6%. Their median projection for annual GDP growth was 3.0%, down from 3.7% in the preceding quarter.

September exports reached a record $120.9 billion, an increase of 84% from a year earlier. Semiconductor shipments rose 262.8% to $60.3 billion, accounting for nearly half of exports. Domestic consumption, meanwhile, remained under pressure from high borrowing costs and elevated household debt.

Nomura Asia economist Jeong Woo Park said fiscal policy was an important channel for spreading export gains through the domestic economy. He also pointed to less supportive financial conditions and difficulties facing younger job seekers as companies adopted AI. Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned that dependence on the semiconductor industry left the economy vulnerable.

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.00%, matching consensus expectations. A separate economist poll projected economic growth of 3.5% in 2026.

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Ananya Iyer

Economy & Policy Editor

Edits and reviews stories on the economy and economic policy: growth, inflation, jobs, central banks, the IMF and World Bank, fiscal and trade policy, and regulators' rules.