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Japan core inflation expected to rise to 2.3% in October

A poll of 16 economists points to a second consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, with price pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

Grocery shelves with price labels in a Japanese supermarket
Photo: CNA

Japan’s annual core consumer inflation rate is forecast to reach 2.3% for October, compared with September’s 2.1%, a poll of 16 economists showed. That would mark a second consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% goal.

The core measure counts energy costs but leaves out fresh food. The forecast comes as the effects of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continue to feed through to prices.

Ryosuke Katagi, a market economist at Mizuho Securities, said he expected inflation to remain strong for food other than rice and for daily necessities because of the situation in Iran.

Bank of Japan figures showed wholesale inflation accelerated again in October, with the Middle East conflict and AI-related demand pushing fuel and semiconductor chip prices higher.

The central bank left interest rates unchanged in October and said it had achieved its inflation target, with attention now needed on keeping inflation around that level. The internal affairs ministry is scheduled to publish the consumer price figures on November 20.

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About the author

Ananya Iyer

Economy & Policy Editor

Edits and reviews stories on the economy and economic policy: growth, inflation, jobs, central banks, the IMF and World Bank, fiscal and trade policy, and regulators' rules.