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AI tops financial stability concerns in Fed survey

AI-related risks were cited by 87% of respondents, up from 50% in May, as the Fed examined borrowing tied to advanced computing infrastructure.

Data center server racks illustrating computing infrastructure
Photo: CNA

Artificial intelligence ranked as the leading financial stability concern in a Federal Reserve survey published November 13, with 87% of respondents identifying it as a significant risk. The central bank's semiannual Financial Stability Report highlighted concerns about technology risks and the pace of investment.

The survey, conducted in September and October, showed a rise from 50% citing AI in May. Respondents pointed to cyberattacks, complicated financing structures and the possibility that weaker AI earnings could trigger a wider market decline.

A broad decline in risky assets was cited by 52% of respondents, while 48% flagged higher long-term interest rates. Cyberattacks and the sustainability of fiscal debt each drew concern from 43%.

The Fed said debt issuance associated with advanced computing reached $680 billion by October 2026, five times the amount issued throughout 2023. Such borrowing represented nearly a third of investment-grade debt issuance by nonfinancial companies, compared with less than 6% three years earlier.

The report examined how large technology firms support smaller companies' infrastructure projects through contracts, leases, guarantees and equity investments. Fed data indicated that debt, guarantees and leases that had yet to begin on this infrastructure could exceed $3 trillion.

Those arrangements could help the largest companies absorb losses during a downturn and limit wider financial damage, the Fed said. But they could also leave those firms with substantially greater exposure than their balance-sheet liabilities suggest, while connections among companies and lenders require close monitoring.

The Fed also warned that elevated asset valuations and leverage could compound a downturn. It said hedge fund leverage, particularly at the largest firms, remained at its highest recorded level since data collection began in 2013.

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Valeria Montoya

Finance Editor

Edits and reviews stories on banks, insurers, asset managers, payments and fintech, private equity and credit, the regulation of financial institutions, and personal finance.