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Nebius lowers 2026 revenue outlook as capacity delays hit expansion
Shares fell 16% as the AI cloud company raised its spending forecast and outlined plans to fund expansion largely through customer prepayments and asset-backed financing.
Nebius lowered the upper end of its 2026 revenue forecast on November 12 after third-party capacity additions slipped into 2027. The Amsterdam-based AI cloud company's shares fell 16% amid a wider decline in AI stocks.
The company now projects 2026 revenue between $3 billion and $3.2 billion, compared with an earlier upper limit of $3.4 billion. Its third-quarter revenue reached $981 million, exceeding estimates of $907.5 million.
Nebius said capacity previously due this year was now expected during the first half of 2027, with the underlying contracts still intact. CEO Arkady Volozh said some third-party locations, including New Jersey, were behind schedule, while facilities Nebius itself is developing remained on schedule or ahead. Most of the next gigawatt of capacity would come from its own sites, he said.
Despite the delays, Nebius increased its 2026 spending projection to about $27 billion, replacing a range of $20 billion to $25 billion. It expects spending between $40 billion and $45 billion in 2027. The company said customer prepayments and asset-backed financing under existing hyperscaler contracts, including those with Microsoft and Meta, would cover roughly 75% to 85% of its 2027 investments.
For 2027, Nebius forecasts revenue between $12 billion and $13 billion and expects to reach pre-tax break-even by year-end. CFO Dado Alonso said customers were already seeking capacity for 2028 and that prices for 2027 were rising.