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Dollar slips as bond yields fall and October Fed hike expectations cool

The euro gained 0.5% after touching an 18-month low, while U.S. Treasury yields reached roughly three-week lows.

Currency trading screens displaying exchange rates and government bond yields
Photo: CNA

The dollar index declined 0.2% to 102.03 on October 15, retreating from an 18-month high as U.S. bond yields dropped and Federal Reserve officials signaled patience on interest rates. Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data had pushed the currency to that peak a day earlier.

Trading initially implied a 50% probability of an October rate increase following the consumer price figures. Expectations then eased as officials said the Fed could seek greater clarity before its meeting on October 27 and 28. Those officials included Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision, and Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President.

Renewed concern over heavy debt at AI companies drew investors toward Treasuries, while technology stocks weakened. Bond buying lowered the yield on 10-year Treasuries to 5.085%; the 30-year yield reached 5.428%. Both were near three-week lows.

Societe Generale chief FX strategist Kit Juckes said changes in investor positioning also influenced the dollar. ANZ's head of Asia research, Khoon Goh, said markets appeared to judge the inflation reading insufficient to force an October increase.

The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1216 after reaching an 18-month low. Sterling gained 0.5% to $1.3253, showing little reaction to Britain's unexpected 0.1% economic expansion in August. Australia's currency fell 0.7% to $0.6919 following an unexpected September employment decline, while the yen strengthened to 157.80 per dollar.

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About the author

Tunde Balogun

Markets Editor

Edits and reviews market stories: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, the major indices, Treasury yields and the market reaction to data and central banks.