The Heritage Foundation, in collaboration with over 100 conservative organizations, has developed a comprehensive roadmap known as Project 2025 for a potential second term of Donald Trump's presidency. This strategic document outlines a new direction for US foreign policy, notably focusing on two African territories, Somaliland and Djibouti. As the US reassesses its approach, the self-declared republic of Somaliland stands at the crossroads of significant geopolitical interests involving economic, military, and strategic dimensions.
Somaliland is a self-declared republic that has been striving for international recognition since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991. Despite its efforts, the African Union and other global powers have upheld the principle of territorial integrity, refusing to acknowledge Somaliland as a separate entity. However, within the US policy circles, there is a growing push for recognition. Influential Republicans, including Congressman Scott Perry, have advocated for formal acknowledgment of Somaliland, introducing legislation to this effect.
"The case for Somaliland in US terms is very compelling," said Joshua Meservey, a key architect of Republican Africa thinking.
The United States has started to shift its diplomatic focus away from Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. This move deviates from the longstanding "one-track" Somalia policy, which concentrated on supporting the central government in Mogadishu. Somaliland's strategic location along one of the world's busiest shipping lanes makes it an attractive proposition for US interests, particularly in establishing a military presence.
The US military currently maintains an airbase at Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, conducting regular airstrikes against Islamist insurgents. However, the Biden administration has considered alternative sites for military bases in the region, specifically eyeing Berbera in Somaliland. The port city of Berbera boasts a 4km runway constructed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War and offers significant strategic advantages.
"If the deal is good for us, we will take it. If the US wants a military base here we will give it to them," stated Somaliland's Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan.
The Trump administration's prior decision to withdraw most American troops from Somalia raised concerns about future security arrangements in the region. Somali officials fear that such moves could create security vacuums that embolden terrorist groups like al-Shabab and threaten the broader stability of the Horn of Africa.
"A withdrawal would create a significant security vacuum, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening the stability of not only Somalia but the broader Horn of Africa," warned Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar.
In addition to military interests, economic factors play a crucial role in the US's shifting stance toward Somaliland. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) runs the recently expanded port in Berbera and hopes to rival Djibouti as a major shipping hub. Meanwhile, tensions have arisen between the US and China over Djibouti, with accusations of Chinese interference in US military activities.
"The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots."
Somaliland's quest for recognition also faces domestic challenges within Somalia. Many Somali politicians and citizens view any move toward recognizing Somaliland's independence as a threat to national sovereignty and regional stability.
"Any move towards recognising Somaliland's independence would not only contravene Somalia's sovereignty but also destabilise the region by setting a dangerous precedent," cautioned Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar.
Despite these concerns, some Somalilanders remain hopeful about potential US recognition, viewing it as an opportunity to bolster their international standing and secure economic benefits.
"Donald is our saviour. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America," expressed university student Aisha Ismail.
However, not all are convinced that Donald Trump would prioritize Somaliland in his foreign policy agenda.
"I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, never mind where it is," remarked Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu.
As US policymakers continue to deliberate on Somaliland's future status, discussions are expected to weigh heavily on national interests and strategic calculations. The recognition of Somaliland could serve as a significant geopolitical shift with implications extending beyond regional borders.
"I think the question of recognition will definitely be discussed, although the guiding north star is what is best for US national interests in practical terms," noted Joshua Meservey.
Diplomatic efforts to sway US policy may hinge on presenting compelling arguments that align with broader American strategic goals. The role of influential figures within the Republican Party and other proponents of recognition will be crucial in shaping these discussions.
"It depends how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to seduce him," commented a US-based Somaliland diplomat.
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