Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to travel to Washington this Friday to sign a significant agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal aims to jointly develop and monetize Ukraine's deposits of rare earth elements, critical minerals, oil, gas, and other natural resources. Trump has claimed that the deal could be worth up to $500 billion; however, this figure has been disputed by Ukraine and is met with skepticism by various experts.
Experts from the Atlantic Council have asserted that Ukraine does not possess large quantities of rare-earth elements. They emphasize that the potential value of this deal is uncertain due to several factors, including the size of Ukraine's mineral deposits, their accessibility, and the ease of extraction. Additionally, much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is located in Russian-occupied territories, which complicates any extraction efforts.
While the United Nations has reported that Ukraine has significant deposits of rare earths, some analysts argue that current estimates may be inflated. Nataliia Shapoval, head of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, pointed out that "other estimates are still confidential." She further noted that the mineral reserves may not reach the anticipated trillions, stating, "there, the numbers are lower and may be not in the trillions."
The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the situation. According to Reed Blakemore from the Atlantic Council, "Russia currently occupies over 60% of Ukrainian coal mines, and a share of caesium, lithium, manganese and rare earth deposits, which potentially denies revenue to Ukraine and deepens Russian influence across supply chains." This occupation makes it increasingly challenging for Ukraine to access its mineral resources.
The locations of these valuable deposits are primarily concentrated in Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia. However, much of this territory remains under Russian control. Experts warn that extracting minerals is just one hurdle; processing and refining pose additional challenges. "Actually getting it out of the ground is an entirely different matter," remarked Robert Muggah, founder of consultancy SecDev Group.
The United States faces its own set of challenges in this venture. Analysts have pointed out that the U.S. currently lacks the necessary infrastructure to transport and refine these ores at scale within Europe or North America. "For a deal to really de-risk the U.S. minerals supply chain, more infrastructure is likely needed to ensure that the newly acquired mineral ores don't flow toward Beijing," warned an Atlantic Council expert. China remains a dominant force in minerals refining and processing, complicating U.S. ambitions to create a more independent supply chain.
Despite these challenges, many view the deal as a potential strategy to deter further Russian aggression toward Ukraine. Trump has framed the agreement as part of broader peace negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S., suggesting that it may help improve relations between the two countries.
However, experts caution against placing too much hope in the deal’s projected value. They emphasize that while Ukraine may have significant reserves of titanium, graphite, and lithium—resources essential for the U.S. defense industry and high-tech economy—the actual feasibility of extracting and monetizing these resources remains uncertain.
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