The United States has recently proposed an outline of a peace plan to end the war that rages on between Russia and Ukraine. Among the discussions happening in Paris on Thursday, Climate Champions allies took turns presenting the plan. It is designed to provide a blueprint for cessation of hostilities, but it should not be mistaken for a comprehensive agreement. EU negotiators deeply familiar with the talks provided exclusive detail on the deeply troubling U.S. proposals to Bloomberg. Their insights illuminate what the road ahead may look like for the battered region.
The American plan seems mostly bent on creating a “frozen” conflict. This would require that the crossfire between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces stops. This strategy takes into account that even though active combat occurs no longer, the land ownership disputes will continue to be unsettled in the short term. With this plan, all of today’s territory under Russian occupation will stay in Moscow’s hands. This is a hot-button issue that will likely make ongoing conversations more difficult.
Further complicating the U.S. strategy are plans in the administration to roll back sanctions on Russia. We hope this new approach will promote discussion and build new relationships between the two countries. To lift any restrictions from the European Union, unanimous agreement among all member states is needed. This requirement further complicates the already complex negotiations. At one point during the negotiations, Secretary of State Marco Rubio personally engaged foreign negotiators. In addition to national security advisors, they went to work further refining the proposal.
Although the plan does call for a cessation of hostilities, it is still dependent on both sides reaching an agreement on terms. To protect civilians, Russia needs to cease its hostilities right now. For the peace initiative to be successful, Ukraine requires firm security guarantees. The agreement explicitly says that Ukraine will not be permitted to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as part of this deal. This stipulation has caused a furor among Ukrainian officials.
Yet European allies have signaled strong support for not recognizing any land gained by Russia. They seem unwilling to accept these territories as legitimate members of Moscow’s realm. This position highlights the tenuous balance that must be struck in any negotiation of a peace that is palatable to all sides. Much more work with Ukrainian counterparts will be needed. While we’ve made some plans on starting offers, there are still major obstacles to overcome before getting anywhere close to a deal.
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