Trump’s first 100 days in office are already a disaster for the Dow. That’s the worst performance we’ve achieved since the 1970s. As he nears this historic milestone, the S&P 500 has experienced its worst market crash. This slide is emblematic of a stormy macroeconomic landscape aggravated by Trump’s wreckage of an economy defined by hard-hitting trade protectionism and unmet investor sentiment.
To put this in context, the S&P 500 rose 3.7% from Election Day to Inauguration Day. Since Trump was inaugurated on January 20, the index has tanked by 7.9% as of April 25. This performance ranks as the second worst for a president’s first 100 days, closely following President Richard Nixon’s tenure, when the market fell nearly 10% in 1973 due to economic measures that triggered a recession.
Trump’s first 100 days come to a close, officially, on Tuesday. He’s got only two more trading days to begin to rectify this troubling pattern. Fact is, historically speaking, the S&P 500 tends to rise by an average of 2.1% over the first 100 days of any presidency. This trend has been the case since 1944. If the market does rally, Trump will be looking at the third worst start in history. This would be as bad as a 6.9% drop, a record set during George W. Bush’s first 100 days in 2001.
Investors should be concerned about Trump’s isolationist trade agenda. They are worried that it will create upward inflationary pressures and even a worsening recession. In reaction to such worries, Trump ordered a temporary 90-day freeze on. The temporary truce allows countries to focus on reworking trade agreements, after his original offer of “reciprocal” tariffs sent the S&P 500 into bear market territory last April. The index then proceeded to lose 10% of its value in only two days after this important announcement came out.
On Friday, the S&P 500 finished at 5500.60. So this is an impressive collapse, having erased everything it gained after the election since Trump took office, after hitting a record 6,144.15 on February 19. Even as bullish momentum reigned, market analysts were cautious about future movements, pointing out that uncertainty still hangs over Washington like a sword of Damocles.
“I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near-term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.” – Jeffrey Hirsch
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