The geopolitical landscape surrounding Iran‘s nuclear program has shifted dramatically since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Iran’s economy has already been hard pressed by the re-imposition of sanctions. This economic downturn has only exacerbated domestic pressures, creating a strong grassroots imperative for negotiations. The Biden administration in particular is publicly vulnerable for appearing “soft” on Iran. By contrast, the world’s most famous Iran hawk, former President Donald Trump, could draw more condemnation while pursuing bolder talks.
Since the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran has ramped up its nuclear program, enriching and stockpiling uranium near historic levels. In particular, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that Iran’s nuclear enrichment has reached 60% purity. This development should alarm everyone, for it portends the creation of weapons. With this new enrichment level, Iran is now the only non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT, carrying out enrichment activities. This case has raised deep alarm across the global community.
In 2015, the Obama administration joined hands with Russia, China, and the European Union—joined by the United Kingdom—to cut a deal with Iran. This deal was designed to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. As Iran lost ground regionally and retreated economically, the Islamic Republic grew more isolated. Senior Iranian officials have started to pressure Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to reconsider his hardline position against reopening nuclear negotiations with the U.S. This is a huge turnaround from his long-held, staunch opposition.
The recent high-level U.S.-Iran bilateral negotiations in Oman also concluded on an upbeat note. Each nation’s representatives demonstrated a mutual respect for one another and an enthusiasm to pursue productive engagement further. These advances indicate that Iran might be more open to compromising terms than in past years. Gregory Brew noted that “Iran’s regional position has been significantly weakened,” highlighting the country’s interest in securing a deal sooner rather than later.
Trump’s strategy differs significantly from Biden’s approach. The current administration has been cautious in its dealings with Iran, constrained by public opinion and fears of backlash if perceived as lenient. Rather, it means that Trump faces no political pressure from those same forces. He wants a possible deal with Iran, not military confrontation with richer, closer neighbor. He stated, “I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it.”
Ryan Bohl provided analysis on Iran’s apparent willingness to create a framework for further negotiations. He said, “I think the Iranians are eager to develop a workable framework that will allow extended negotiations that would forestall military action that President Trump certainly has suggested could come in just a few months.” This latest sentiment further clarifies the urgency in Tehran to stabilize their untenable situation while they continue to pursue diplomatic options.
Iran has stood its ground. The Iranian leadership continues to claim that its nuclear program is entirely civilian in nature – limited to energy production only. When considered alongside the IAEA’s ongoing alarm bells regarding Iran’s nuclear progress, it begs the question: what are Iran’s real intentions? Nader Itayim remarked, “Ultimately, I think the key to these negotiations was always going to be around what the U.S. demands were towards Iran,” indicating that U.S. expectations will play a crucial role in any potential agreement.
The current economic conditions inside Iran have created more challenges to the landscape. With inflation soaring and popular dissatisfaction on the rise, Iranian leaders face pressure to show tangible outcomes via effective negotiations. Brew elaborated on this dynamic: “The Iranians are, I think, a little bit more desperate than they were in 2022, and they are faced with a very weak economy.”
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