Since the NFL expanded its playoff bracket to 14 teams in the 2020 season, questions have arisen regarding the true advantage of securing the coveted 1-seed position. This seed not only guarantees home-field advantage but also grants a crucial bye week, setting the stage for a team to potentially steamroll through to the Super Bowl. Yet, despite these perks, the past few seasons have shown mixed results for teams holding this supposedly advantageous position.
The statistics are telling. Since 2020, 1-seeds boast a playoff record of 11-7, translating to a 61.1% win percentage. While this may appear favorable on paper, several top-seeded teams have faltered en route to the Super Bowl. The 2023 Ravens, 2021 Packers, 2021 Titans, and 2020 Packers serve as notable examples of teams that failed to capitalize on their top-seed status. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs stand out as the only team to have successfully converted a 1-seed into a Super Bowl title under the new playoff format.
Divisional winners currently fill the top-four seeds in each conference, yet recent history suggests that being a wild-card team might offer its own advantages. In three matchups last weekend, wild-card teams boasted better records than their higher-seeded opponents. The Tennessee Titans found themselves in an unfamiliar spot by the end of the 2021 season, holding the No. 1 seed but ultimately failing to make it to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs' journey in recent years highlights the unpredictable nature of playoff success. They clinched Super Bowls after holding the 1-seeds in both 2019 and 2022. However, in 2020, despite reaching the Super Bowl as a 1-seed, they fell short against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This inconsistency raises questions about whether the coveted first-round bye truly offers a significant competitive edge.
Interestingly, Super Bowl LVI featured neither a 1-seed nor a 2-seed but instead showcased two 4-seeds: the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. This anomaly underscores the potential volatility of playoff outcomes, challenging conventional wisdom about seed advantages.
The MLB playoffs in 2023 further exemplify this unpredictability. Teams with first-round byes went just 1-3 in the divisional round, with both 1-seeds—the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles—exiting early against wild-card contenders. These results reflect a broader trend where lower-seeded teams often harness momentum from early playoff victories.
Kansas City Chiefs personnel openly acknowledge the challenges tied to being a high seed. One member of the Chiefs staff candidly stated, "Home-field advantage doesn't mean much once you kick it off." The key to success lies beyond mere statistics; it involves maintaining focus and avoiding complacency.
"It's rest, recovery and not getting someone injured for the next game. If you have a veteran group and the leadership to handle that well, it should work to your advantage," said a Chiefs source.
The Chiefs have adopted this mindset, striving to emulate the energy and urgency of lower-seeded teams during their bye weeks.
"It's essentially like winning a playoff game," remarked another Chiefs source on securing the top seed.
Kansas City's strategy centers around leveraging their experience and leadership qualities during these critical weeks of rest.
"We've tried to hammer those out, continue to do that until we find out what the results are Sunday night," explained Andy Reid, underscoring the importance of preparation and execution throughout their bye week.
For other franchises eyeing the top seed, navigating this landscape requires careful planning and adaptability. Detroit Lions' head coach Dan Campbell emphasized setting clear goals early in the season.
"You try to set yourself up the best you can and that's why you put these goals out there," Campbell noted.
Despite strategic preparations, success remains elusive for many top seeds, as highlighted by an executive from a former 1-seed team:
"But that would be a bloodbath," he remarked on the intense competition awaiting teams that secure this position.
Ultimately, each season presents unique challenges for top-seeded teams. A team source acknowledged this variability:
"It's a learned experience, or unique to our situation each year — every year has different needs."
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