Kosmos 482, a Soviet-era spacecraft launched in 1972 for an eventual mission to Venus, is due to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. We expect that milestone to be about May 10. There was no backup plan at all—the spacecraft never left low Earth orbit. Since then, it’s broken apart into four separate pieces, including what scientists think is a lander probe. International space agencies are watching this dazzling, spherical object with great excitement. It’s one of the largest scientific balloons on record, weighing close to half a tonne and almost a meter in diameter.
The solar powered lander probe has a dark bottom half and a lighter, hole-pocked top half. It’s possible that some bits of Kosmos 482 could survive the fiery re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere. These pieces we might have a chance with, not burning in totality. Additionally, the spacecraft’s planned trajectory during the uncrewed flight path would present very low risk to the people on the ground. In practice, it could end up between 51.7° north latitude and 51.7° south latitude. This vast expanse includes three-quarters of our planet and nearly all of the world’s human population but it is mostly ocean.
Despite having a highly simplistic parachute system, Kosmos 482’s parachute has almost certainly degraded after over 50 years in space! Its design continues to raise severe safety issues for re-entry. Mr. Stijn Lemmens, a Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, stated, “It’s much more likely that you win the lottery than that you get impacted by this piece of space debris.” This underscores how nearly riskless the event was.
In addition, Lemmens urged the need to create spacecraft that re-enter the atmosphere in a safer way. He noted that they “should be designed in such a way that they can take themselves out of orbit safely, preferably by doing controlled re-entries.” This view of the Earth beyond illustrates the important work already underway in the space community to reduce the risk posed by space debris.
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