The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is surging in popularity across East Germany, as the nation gears up for the federal election on February 23. Polls indicate that the AfD is leading in most eastern constituencies, with its candidates positioned to make significant gains. This rise in support comes despite the party securing just over 10% of the vote in the last federal election. In the upcoming election, it is expected to capture around 20% of the electorate.
While the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU), maintain a lead in national polls with approximately 30% of voter support, the AfD's growing presence in East Germany is noteworthy. The region's historical challenges and current economic dynamics are contributing factors to this shift.
Unemployment in East Germany has dramatically decreased, with the gap between East and West narrowing significantly. Living standards, when adjusted for cost of living, are now comparable to those in the West. However, the AfD has capitalized on lingering feelings of economic insecurity among voters. Alice Weidel, the AfD's lead candidate, has taken bold stances on issues like climate change and green energy policies, calling for wind turbines to be dismantled. The party’s skepticism towards climate initiatives appeals to constituents who feel uneasy about rapid changes.
Despite economic improvements, sentiments of being "second-class citizens" persist among East Germans. The AfD has tapped into these emotions effectively. According to Matthias Diermeier, "This is seen as unjust, unfair… by supporters of the fringe parties, but it's also a sentiment that is very strongly activated by these political actors." He further noted, "And this is what they do very successfully."
The AfD positions itself as a voice for those feeling left behind by mainstream politics. As Manes Weisskircher explains, "Economics matters, rather because of a sentiment of long-term insecurity and unclear economic prospects — in a region that experienced severe economic problems in the 1990s and early 2000s, with high unemployment rates, among other issues." He adds, "Since the transformation of the 1990s, economic insecurity has been a regular sentiment among part of the eastern German population."
The party's success is not solely due to economic factors. Immigration opposition runs higher in East Germany compared to other regions. This stance resonates with voters wary of cultural and demographic changes. Mainstream parties struggle to establish a loyal base in East Germany, an area where they were less influential prior to national reunification.
Despite its popularity surge, the AfD is unlikely to join the next ruling coalition. Mainstream parties have consistently refused any partnership with the AfD due to its controversial positions on various issues. This isolation has not deterred its supporters, who view it as a genuine alternative to traditional political entities.
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