The Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents have reached unprecedented lows, sparking concerns among scientists and environmentalists worldwide. Nearly 0.2 million square kilometers below previous records for this time of year, Arctic sea-ice is witnessing its smallest extent ever recorded. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea-ice is nearing a new low in satellite records dating back to the late 1970s. This alarming trend comes at a time when temperatures around the north pole soared approximately 20°C above normal in early February, leading to melting conditions in regions such as Svalbard. Concurrently, the Antarctic ice-shelves have endured a severe season of surface melting due to high air temperatures.
Over the five days leading up to February 13, the combined extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice was measured at 15.76 million square kilometers (6.08 million square miles), breaking the previous record low of 15.93 million square kilometers (6.15 million square miles) set in January-February 2023. The decline has raised alarms about the future of polar ice and its role in regulating global climate, with experts predicting that the Arctic could be virtually free of sea-ice at the end of its summer at least once before 2050, according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Julienne Stroeve, a professor of polar observation and modelling at University College London, emphasized the increased vulnerability of thinner ice to weather changes.
"A thinner ice cover is more responsive to weather [… so] weather events can have a stronger impact than they used to," – Julienne Stroeve, professor of polar observation and modelling at University College London.
For decades, researchers have observed a steady decline in Arctic sea-ice in response to global warming. The Arctic warming rate is nearly four times faster than the global average, leading to a significant reduction in ice cover. From an average of 7 million square kilometers in the 1980s, Arctic sea-ice extent fell to 4.5 million square kilometers in the 2010s—a 14% decline since the early-to-mid 1980s.
In contrast, Antarctic sea-ice is characterized by its relatively thin and mobile nature, being surrounded by ocean rather than continents like its Arctic counterpart. Despite this fundamental difference, the Antarctic sea-ice extent has also been tracking exceptionally low since late 2024. Walter Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), explained that current trends suggest a permanent shift in ice conditions.
"Every year, every data point that we get suggests that this isn't a temporary shift, but something more permanent, like what we've seen in the Arctic," – Walter Meier, senior research scientist at NSIDC.
"It is indicating that the Antarctic has moved into a new regime of lower ice extents." – Walter Meier, senior research scientist at NSIDC.
The phenomenon is exacerbated by atmospheric conditions which have been conducive to surface melting on Antarctic ice-shelves during December and January. Tom Bracegirdle from the British Antarctic Survey highlighted this factor's influence on current observations.
"Atmospheric conditions in December and January looked like they were strongly promoting surface melting on the ice-shelves," – Tom Bracegirdle, research scientist at the British Antarctic Survey.
"That could also have contributed to what we've seen in Antarctic sea-ice, and ongoing ocean warming is setting the backdrop to all of this as well." – Tom Bracegirdle, research scientist at the British Antarctic Survey.
The loss of polar ice has broad implications for global climate regulation. Simon Josey from the National Oceanography Centre warned about the potential consequences of altering sea-ice distribution around Antarctica.
"If you significantly change the sea ice distribution in and around Antarctica, you modify that part of the planet which is actually helping us fight against climate change," – Simon Josey, professor at the National Oceanography Centre.
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