Ahead of the 2023-24 season, the National Basketball Association (NBA) adopted a new “player participation policy.” While this policy would not directly penalize bad actors by tanking, it would help address concerns around competitive balance stemming from player availability. As the season progresses, tanking remains perhaps the biggest issue on the table. When it comes to implementation, some teams are flourishing with their approaches, and other teams are floundering and failing. Utah has had remarkable success with this controversial tactic, and Toronto hasn’t fared as well.
The NBA has long faced criticism regarding its draft system, which historically saw all non-playoff teams having an equal chance to move up. The new system addresses all three of these issues. It adopts a sliding scale of odds that varies based on the previous year’s lottery results. For a few teams, tanking remains the go-to strategic move. They would like to hang on and secure a better playoff position while improving their lottery odds in the draft.
The player participation policy is a new addition to the NBA’s long clamp down to combat these problematic interactions. This isn’t the only proactive step the league is taking. Equally important, the league is publicly and actively grappling with the potential pitfalls of maintaining competitive integrity. As a result, the impact of these types of measures is still being debated.
The Evolution of the Draft System
The current NBA draft system has undergone some major changes throughout the years. These alterations are designed to discourage tanking and encourage a competitive balance in the league. Originally, all non-playoff teams were treated equally in how far they could jump up in the draft lottery. This system was problematic because it created perverse incentives for teams to lose games on purpose, and reform efforts were widely supported.
To address these issues, the NBA devised a sliding scale of odds. This scale penalizes non-playoff teams based on how many times they win the annual lottery. The intent was to make tanking more difficult by discouraging teams from intentionally losing games in order to get an improved draft position. Despite these efforts, tanking remains an urgent concern across the league.
In recent years, the NBA has taken it a step further by adding play-in games as another way to deter teams from tanking. These matchups provide teams just outside of the playoff picture a last opportunity to squeeze into the postseason. This intensifies the hotly contested race for the playoffs over the full length of the regular season.
"Philosophically, I'm not aware of anyone making a serious push to eliminate our current philosophy of the draft, which is to award top picks to teams that are most in need of talent." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
"That is a fundamental tenet of our current draft system." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
It’s worked pretty well, but no surprise that despite all these efforts, bad actor teams have been able to game the system. Utah's success in tanking demonstrates that even with reforms in place, teams can still strategically position themselves for better draft outcomes. On the flip side, Toronto’s ongoing woes show that tanking is not a surefire way to achieve success.
The Impact of Player Participation Policy
The player participation policy, adopted to address issues of player availability. In this manner, fans can be pleased with the quality of performances on a week-by-week basis all through the season. This policy was never really meant to be a weapon used against tanking teams. Instead, it looks at keeping track of players' availabilities, especially those of qualifying stars such as Markkanen.
Some teams have exploited this policy to its fullest by sitting major players during the most important parts of games. A prime example of Markkanen’s impact on a game highlighted the extreme changes Toronto has made since the All-Star break. They sat their primary guns, Barnes and Barrett, and went with players they signed after the season started or on two-way deals.
"We are not in the business of policing rotations in that way." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
"For the league to step in and say that a team chose to play one player over another player and that was the wrong decision, I think that's a bit of a slippery slope." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
"And oh, by the way, some of those [younger] guys actually go win the game." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
While teams adjust to these new policies, the NBA will be watching closely to see how these changes affect player participation. Whatever their individual frustrations, every team in the league wants to see competitive integrity upheld. At the same time it allows teams the room to freely operate their rosters how they want to.
Strategies for Reducing Tanking
Several media outlets have pointed to this solution as the easiest way to decrease tanking by eliminating the mid-lottery pick protections. By removing these forms of protection from retribution, teams would have a stronger disincentive to tank games on purpose. They wouldn’t be ensured the same draft position they locked up by winning fewer games during the regular season.
Analytics experts at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference unanimously agreed—Flagg was a star. They put him right around the 85th percentile compared to his peers. Analytics can play a huge role in proactively developing anti-tanking strategies. They further level the playing field in terms of competition among all teams in the league.
"One of the goals of lottery reform was really to smooth out outcomes within the lottery so that no team would look at it and say there's a significant benefit to me being the third lottery team as opposed to the fourth, or the eighth lottery team as opposed to the ninth." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
"That is a dynamic that we're seeing." – Evan Wasch, NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics
Beyond structural changes, creating a culture of competitiveness goes a long way in minimizing tanking. This is evident in coaches like Will Hardy, who stress the values of passion and joy on the floor, never mind who’s playing.
"Our young players play really hard and we're imperfect, and some nights are sloppy and ugly and all those things, but I do think the competitive spirit, the energy of the youth of these guys is something that our fans enjoy watching." – Will Hardy, Jazz coach
"For our team, it's been a point of pride that I don't care who's on the court, I want our fans to know that our team is going to play with a ton of passion and joy." – Will Hardy, Jazz coach
Having a positive culture creates an exciting environment where players want to come and get better. With this focus on development, winning becomes imperative and tanking a distant memory.
Leave a Reply