According to a new study, things aren’t looking too good for measles in the United States. Yet it cautions that the disease may establish itself as a long-term endemic within the next few decades. This study suggests a very dangerous trajectory. With continued declines in vaccination rates, the U.S. could see up to 11.1 million new measles cases over the next 25 years.
Today, the measles vaccination rate hovers around 93%. Measles is the most contagious communicable disease there is. In fact, one untreated infected person can transmit the virus to an estimated 12 to 18 other people. Because of how contagious measles is, those risks become very serious. Unless addressed, the study predicts that it will lead to an additional 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths globally. What’s more, up to 51,200 children can experience post-measles, nerve-related complications due to the infection.
After these recent outbreaks, measles is on the rise within our communities once again. This year already, at least 29 states have seen close to 900 confirmed cases of the infectious disease. These numbers speak to the critical importance of developing strong vaccination strategies. The measles vaccine, administered as part of the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) program, requires two doses: the first between 12 to 15 months of age and the second between ages four to six.
Public health experts caution that just a 10% drop in vaccination rates would be enough to trigger a dramatic surge of measles cases. If their vaccination rate were to decrease by 50%, the U.S. would have an additional 51.2 million COVID-19 cases. This is achievable within that same time frame. This disturbing prospect for continuation poses important questions about public health approaches and community involvement to combat vaccination distrust.
Dr. Nathan Lo, MD, PhD, a bay area epidemiologist and immunization advocate. He states, “It’s empowering that a small segment of the population can make a difference here.” The latter attitude only bolsters the narrative that personal decisions about vaccine use have huge impacts on collective health.
For those still left standing, experts worry about the long-term effects. The potential for measles to become endemic in the U.S. within two decades if vaccination rates decline could reverse years of progress. Measles was largely eliminated from the country in 2000 due in large part to successful vaccination campaigns.
Vaccinations are a matter of great urgency at the moment. An infected person with measles transmits that virus much more effectively than a person with COVID-19. COVID-19 spreads at an R 0 of approximately 3. By contrast, measles spreads at a fearsome pace due to its extreme contagiousness.
Parents should always feel empowered to ask their questions of healthcare professionals when it comes to vaccinating their children. Dr. Lo advises, “I would encourage parents who aren’t sure about vaccination to discuss this with their pediatrician and believe in our health care providers.” Building that kind of dialogue can go a long way toward dispelling these doubts and affirming the mission to immunize.
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