Iran has made significant expansions to its nuclear enrichment program in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers. The country is currently enriching uranium to almost 60% purity, near the weapons-grade threshold of about 90%. International powers have become understandably concerned over this trend. At the same time, indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington continue. Oman is still mediating.
Since late 2019, Iran has systematically violated the nuclear limits imposed by the historic accord. That agreement soured further when the U.S. pulled out in 2018 under former President Donald Trump. After the withdrawal, Trump proceeded to wage a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. Before leaving office, he enacted tough sanctions that have crushed Iran’s economy.
Iranian officials claim they are prepared to accept new, legally-binding restrictions on their nuclear program. When it comes to fundamental issues, they don’t want to bend. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated unequivocally that Iran would never agree to limits on its enrichment program. He has said surrendering their entire stockpile of enriched uranium is a third such “red line” in the negotiations. “To build confidence about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief,” Araqchi noted, highlighting Tehran’s stance on the negotiations.
Araqchi has continued those negotiations in Muscat, where he has met with Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Both sides are walking away with a cautious optimism after the dialogues. Indeed, a senior U.S. administration official went so far as to call the talks “positive and productive.” Araqchi acknowledged the seriousness and determination on both sides but maintained that “our optimism about success of the talks remains extremely cautious.”
Iran’s missile program has been a chief sticking point in those negotiations. Iranian officials have maintained that these advanced defense capabilities are irreducible, making it difficult to reach a comprehensive thaw. European states have already made clear to U.S. negotiators what they expect to see. They argue that any possible agreement should include provisions to prevent Iran from acquiring the capability to launch a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.
Indeed, the atmosphere surrounding the negotiations today reflects that potential, with a palpable blend of hope and trepidation. Araqchi stated, “The presence of experts was beneficial … we will return to our capitals for further reviews to see how disagreements can be reduced.” Unfortunately, this indicates that as much as we’ve accomplished, there is significant work still to be done.
Trump has expressed optimism about achieving a deal with Iran, stating, “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran.” His comments demonstrate an understanding that diplomacy can lead to good outcomes, even with caveats about the complexities at play.
As negotiations enter the homestretch, it is anybody’s guess how the two sides will tackle the complicated and substantive issues involved. Iran’s enrichment activities are getting all too close to redlines, raising serious alarm bells. Secondly, its missile program poses other problems. The road ahead will require a delicate touch and compromise on both sides.
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