Iran's economy faces increasing pressure as it grapples with internal and external challenges. The country is struggling due to its spiraling economy and the loss of regional allies, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Moreover, Iran's proxy forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been weakened following Israeli actions. In response to these pressures, Iran appears to be opting for a third strategy of "muddling through" in an effort to buy time.
Amid these economic and geopolitical strains, Iran has continued to advance its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised alarms about Iran's uranium enrichment activities, which have reached unprecedented levels. According to the IAEA, Iran now possesses nearly 22 times the amount of enriched uranium allowed under the 2015 nuclear agreement. Furthermore, Iran's uranium enrichment has reached 60% purity, a short technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%.
"A country enriching at 60% is a very serious thing. Only countries making bombs are reaching this level," said Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA.
Iranian officials maintain that their nuclear program is intended solely for civilian energy purposes. However, the refusal of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to abandon the nuclear program has stirred international concerns. Ayatollah Khamenei has also dismissed former President Donald Trump's outreach efforts aimed at negotiating an agreement.
"Iran remains the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to this level, raising significant concerns over potential weapons development," stated a U.N. news release.
The geopolitical landscape could shift dramatically during a potential second term for Donald Trump as President of the United States. Iran's current strategy involves leveraging its nuclear advancements to bolster its negotiating position at a time when it is perceived as weakened by ongoing American sanctions and diminished proxy power.
"Iran keeps enriching [uranium] as part of its leverage-building exercise," explained Sanam Vakil, a Middle East expert.
The potential of re-entering negotiations remains a key topic of discussion. Former President Trump expressed his preference for diplomacy over military action.
"I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it," Trump stated.
Experts have noted that the Iranian economy remains under duress due to both internal structural challenges and external pressures. The impact of American sanctions continues to weigh heavily on Iran.
"Israel has degraded some of the Islamic Republic's regional proxies and structural issues and lingering American sanctions have kept the Iranian economy on its back foot," observed Ben Taleblu, an expert in international affairs.
As Iran navigates these challenges, it continues to enrich uranium and increase its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. This move is seen as an effort to create leverage in any future negotiations that may arise.
"The more it has, the more it can offload, and that can appear to be a compromise for any such deal that will come down the line," added Sanam Vakil.
However, skepticism remains regarding Tehran's intentions.
"This is not to resolve the nuclear matter but to blunt maximum pressure and generate impediments to a potential Israeli or American strike," cautioned Behnam, a political analyst.
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