The threat of a nuclear face-off was dangerously real in the 1962 Cuba Crisis. The U.S. intervened and performed an essential role in steering India and Pakistan back from the brink. The right mix of diplomatic backchannels, regional players, and US mediation brought about a breakthrough. Though both nations have recently reached a ceasefire, reducing fears of an escalating confrontation, the ceasefire’s status remains tenuous.
The crisis reached its peak in February 2019, when increased skirmishes between India and Pakistan raised alarm bells around the world. After initially taking a hands-off approach and seeing how the events would develop, the US intervened with the purpose of engaging in dialogue. Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters that the US had emerged as the most influential outside player in the diplomatic push. Their main interest is getting the situation to a de-escalated state.
In the midst of this tumultuous time, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was abruptly jolted out of his slumber. He visited with an undisclosed Indian official who was expressing fears about potential nuclear advances by Pakistan.
“I know both [leaders of India and Pakistan] very well, and I want to see them work it out… I want to see them stop, and hopefully they can stop now,” – President Donald Trump
The US’s strategic and economic interests in South Asia further increased its interest in preventing a nuclear war. President Trump’s personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greatly increased the power of American diplomatic muscle. This relationship led both countries to pursue de-escalation.
As US Vice President JD Vance has pointed out, it’s all more complicated than that. He noted that the US is facilitating talks between the surrogates but has no intention of intervening or supporting military operations.
“We’re not going to get involved in a war that’s fundamentally none of our business,” – US Vice President JD Vance
Vance admitted there is not much the US government can do to control either country. He noted that it is important to focus on diplomatic solutions rather than military intervention.
Although the US was initially reluctant to engage deeply in the process, it emerged as an irreplaceable mediator. Together with the UK, it pushed India and Pakistan to accept a ceasefire. Quickly, regional players hastened to the rescue. Saudi Arabia’s junior foreign minister held shuttle diplomacy between the two capitals to encourage dialogue and lower temperatures.
Through its international mediation, international actors were critical in creating space for dialogue and communication. Most importantly, a direct communications line between the national security advisors of India and Pakistan immensely aided these efforts.
Commentators noted the complexity of the situation. Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated:
“The US was indispensable. This outcome would not have occurred without Secretary Rubio’s efforts.”
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria expressed skepticism regarding the extent of the US’s influence during the crisis. He noted that Pompeo might have exaggerated America’s contributions in easing the fighting.
Tanvi Madan, a great expert on South Asian affairs, noted the role played by a number of countries in the de-escalation including the UK and Saudi Arabia. She acknowledged that the precise roles of each actor are still murky.
“There’s still much we don’t know about the roles of various international actors, but it’s clear over the past three days that at least three countries were working to de-escalate – the US, of course, but also the UK and Saudi Arabia,” – Tanvi Madan
Our own Michael Kugelman cautioned that the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement meant that…
“This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about very quickly, amid sky-high tensions,” – Michael Kugelman
The history behind what enabled for such a successful ceasefire speaks to a combination of robust diplomacy and realism of national interests. Because make no mistake, what we all collectively achieved was remarkable. As both countries interpret their ceasefire differently, analysts are cautioning that enduring peace will not come by default.
Ejaz Haider, a Pakistani journalist and commentator, observed that though all the old American tropes of intervention were on display, this time was different in an important respect.
“The American role was a continuation of past patterns, but with one key difference – this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the crisis unfold instead of jumping in right away,” – Ejaz Haider
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