The BRICS alliance, an economic coalition of emerging markets, continues to expand yet grapple with internal challenges. Originally established by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, South Africa joined the group in 2010. Over the years, the coalition has attracted interest from numerous countries. Notably, during the 16th annual summit held in Kazan in 2024, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates were officially admitted as members. Despite these additions, experts argue that the alliance remains too loose and unorganized to effect substantial change on the global stage.
The Kazan summit concluded with little concrete progress. Cecilia Malmström, an expert on international trade, stated that the summit resulted in "nothing really concrete," reflecting ongoing challenges within the coalition. Yet, the interest in joining BRICS is undeniable. Russian officials and the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee reported that over 30 countries have expressed interest in becoming part of the bloc by 2024. This growing interest underscores the potential influence of BRICS, despite its current limitations.
China has proposed a zero-tariff policy for the least developed countries maintaining diplomatic ties with Beijing, aiming to solidify its leadership role within BRICS. However, as Mihaela Papa from the MIT Center for International Studies notes, internal caution among members could limit China's leverage within the group.
"Even if China seeks to leverage its position, internal caution among members is likely to remain a limiting factor," – Mihaela Papa, director of research at the MIT Center for International Studies.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to push for de-dollarization to mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions. The country aims to sidestep the SWIFT network by advocating for financial transactions independent of the U.S. dollar. However, this proposal faces significant hurdles. David Lubin from Chatham House highlights that the Chinese currency remains "much less useable internationally than dollars," posing a challenge to any efforts to establish a unified BRICS currency.
"Much less useable internationally than dollars," – David Lubin, senior research fellow at Chatham House.
The United States does not perceive BRICS as a threat. John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor, has downplayed concerns about the bloc's intentions. However, President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS nations if they persist in undermining the U.S. dollar.
Despite such threats, analysts like Duncan Wrigley suggest that the size of the expanded bloc makes it unlikely for the U.S. to implement harsh tariffs across all BRICS countries. Wrigley argues that the economic interdependence between these nations and the U.S. would deter such drastic measures.
"There is no reason to believe members of the bloc would be automatically at economic or geopolitical risk in the case of a trade war between the U.S. and China," – Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group.
Furthermore, Mihaela Papa points out that with Trump's administration treating BRICS as a unified entity, a key policy shift may emerge.
"A key policy shift with the incoming Trump administration is its explicit treatment of BRICS as an entity," – Mihaela Papa, director of research at the MIT Center for International Studies.
Leave a Reply