The National Weather Service (NWS), responsible for our daily forecasts and warnings, is currently experiencing historic staffing shortages. They’ve shed over 550 employees due to an order from the Trump administration to downsize agency staff and develop agency reorganization plans. Prior to these cuts, the NWS was staffed by about 4,800 people. The agency is currently in hot pursuit of filling 155 positions. Of these, at least 76 positions are strictly for meteorologists, stationed in the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Guam.
The resultant staff cuts have resulted in the NWS facing even worse than a shocking 40% vacancy rate already in some offices. The lack of staff has resulted in several National Weather Service offices to stop life-saving operations. Consequently, they can no longer afford to perform the twice-daily balloon launches needed for precise weather forecasting. Consequently, the day-to-day operational capacity of NWS has been greatly hampered.
Impact on Operations
These operational challenges confronting the NWS are deep. With open positions in more than three dozen offices, many of the forecast offices are currently operating below their standard staffing level. Usually, these offices work around-the-clock, even during peacetime, to ensure constant flow of real-time weather information and alerts. The lack of qualified meteorologists has led many offices to cut back on overnight shift staffing.
For example, the Sacramento District Office in California recently declared its intention to run on fewer staff during overnight hours. About 200 miles away, the weather service in Goodland, Kansas, was prepared to poach. They’ll put out watches, warnings, or advisories if life-threatening hazardous weather hits when their office would otherwise be closed. These amendments are directed at helping to shed light on the real life hazards stemming from understaffing.
The NWS currently has one to two meteorologist positions vacant in 14 of 122 forecast offices and three in Juneau, Alaska. On top of that, five vacancies remain within its Hanford office in California. To combat this staffing shortfall, the NWS is incentivizing employees left behind to move into these vacant positions.
Concerns from Experts
This unprecedented state of the NWS has sounded an alarm with former directors and meteorology experts. In a congressionally commissioned report, five former Directors stated their grave alarm about the continuing “brain drain” of committed staff and resources from the agency.
“We stand united against the loss of staff and resources at NWS and are deeply concerned about NOAA as a whole,” – five former directors of the weather service.
They continued to highlight the risks to public safety from failing to maintain adequate staffing levels.
“Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life,” – five former directors of the weather service.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain, who works with the new University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources Climate Hub, agrees. As dedicated as the staff still is to their mission, the operational problems are starting to come home to roost.
“The cracks are really now starting to show,” – Daniel Swain.
He acknowledged that the valiant efforts of those still at their posts contribute significantly to maintaining weather forecasting standards amidst a crisis.
Loss of Experience
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of these staffing cuts aside from the decrease in coverage across the nation is the loss of experienced supervisors and experts within the NWS. Through retirements, the Eastern Region has lost over 700 years of collective experience. This huge gap in knowledge could severely limit the efficacy of any forecasting and put public safety at risk.
As several National Weather Service offices adjust to this reality, they face difficult decisions about resource allocation and operational priorities. Whatever the reason, the staffing crisis is an unusual situation for the agency. It harms the American people who are the ones relying on quick and correct weather data to protect their lives and property.
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