Fifteen years after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption disrupted European air travel, experts caution that a larger volcanic event could still pose significant challenges. In April 2010, ash plumes from an Icelandic volcano grounded flights across the UK and Europe. This led to havoc nationwide for travelers and the airline industry. Thanks to new monitoring systems and smarter management strategies, the aviation industry is more prepared than ever to respond to future eruptions.
On April 14, 2010, when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to erupt spectacularly. It belched a gigantic ash plume high into the stratosphere, which later blew south into British airspace. The eruption lasted through June, with occasional surges of increasing ash concentration. In response, Heathrow Airport closed temporarily due to a fire at a nearby substation, which compounded the effects of the volcanic ash. Airspace over the entire UK and much of Europe was shut down for eight days. This disruption led to the cancellation of nearly 1,300 flights, affecting thousands of travelers across the globe.
The disruption was costly too, with the airline industry estimating a £1.1 billion loss. It was a liberating, aggravating time that prompted global conversations about how to handle such crises in the future. On Tuesday April 20, 2010, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) chaired an international teleconference. They settled on a 2 milligrams per cubic meter of air as an acceptable concentration of ash. This decision was a paradigm shift in how regulators treated air travel safety following a volcanic eruption.
In the intervening years, Great Britain and Europe have built incredible capacity to monitor – and if need be, avoid – volcanic ash. To track ash concentrations the Met Office has a unique set of permanent LIDAR instruments. In addition, ash is now tracked by satellites every 15 minutes. These innovations have contributed to more accurate evaluation of air quality impacts and improved safety of flight operations.
Dr Matthew Hort, Head of Atmospheric Dispersion at the Met Office, spoke to the significance behind these developments. He stated, “It was an eye-opener globally. The unique thing about the Icelandic eruption was that it happened in an area where we had winds from the north that brought the ash down across UK airspace and trans-Atlantic routes.”
While these advances have been significant, experts admit that more can—and should—be done, because the threat of a larger eruption looms large. As Dr. Hort warned, “You can never exclude a bigger eruption. Such an event, though improbable, would likely trigger major disruption in the air travel experience once more.
Jonathan Nicholson, the CAA’s director, highlighted how lessons learned from the 2010 incident have informed today’s processes. “If something similar happened today, it will be up to the airlines to use their own permissions from the engine manufacturers and their own safety cases to decide where and when, based on forecasts, will allow them to go,” he explained. He explained the strategy’s close reliance on working with Met Office forecasts. This method provides jurisdictional powers a way to leave the majority of airspace open while still being able to close targeted airports.
Nicholson explained that if a nearby volcano produced a large plume of ash, it would almost certainly shutdown UK or European airspace. Safety reasons would be the impetus for these disruptions. He remarked, “Absolutely we will see disruption because it’s a safety issue.”
Experts agree that if a similar volcanic ash event occurred today, it would not lead to “nowhere near the same level, if any, disruption” as experienced in 2010. The advancements in forecasting and monitoring have equipped aviation authorities with the tools necessary to mitigate risks associated with volcanic activity.
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