U.S. hospitals face a looming shortage of beds that could become "dangerous" in the near future. The aging population is a significant contributor to the anticipated rise in hospitalizations. Forecasts indicate that annual hospitalizations will increase from 36 million in 2025 to 40 million by 2035. Without adjustments to the number of available hospital beds or staffing levels, occupancy rates for adult beds are expected to reach 85% by 2032, with combined adult and pediatric occupancy hitting the same rate by 2035.
Current post-pandemic hospital occupancy rates have surged, sitting 11 percentage points higher than pre-2020 figures. This increase is not attributed to heightened utilization but rather a decrease in staffing. The 85% occupancy rate is widely seen as a conservative threshold that marks the onset of a shortage. Medical errors, the third leading cause of death in the United States, underscore the urgency of addressing this potential crisis. The nation allocates $1.5 trillion annually to hospital care, accounting for approximately 30% of national health care spending.
“With that much spending, you would expect to have superb quality, yet nearly a quarter of hospitalizations contain at least one adverse event, 23% of which are preventable,” – Richard K. Leuchter, MD
Richard K. Leuchter, MD, a hospital doctor and assistant professor at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine, highlights the prevalence of medical errors. These mistakes often stem from overworked healthcare professionals and can include missed diagnoses by physicians, delayed treatments by nurses, or medication mix-ups by pharmacists.
“These errors might be something like a missed diagnosis by an overworked physician, a delayed antibiotic by a nurse stretched too thin, or a medication mix-up by an overburdened pharmacist.” – Richard K. Leuchter, MD
“This is serious for patients, as prior studies using inpatient mortality data have estimated that medical error is the third leading cause of death in the U.S.” – Richard K. Leuchter, MD
To avert a shortage, reducing hospitalization needs by about 10% could suffice in the coming decade. The situation presents an opportunity to embrace new technologies such as telehealth, remote patient monitoring, and AI-powered diagnostics. These innovations can shift care to less-expensive outpatient settings while reducing infection risks.
“We aren’t too late to avoid a hospital bed shortage — we certainly have the means to do so,” – Richard K. Leuchter, MD
“It will just take a concerted effort on the part of patients, physicians, policymakers, and health system leaders.” – Richard K. Leuchter, MD
The findings published in JAMA Network Open emphasize the necessity for collaborative efforts among patients, healthcare professionals, policymakers, and health system leaders to prevent the impending crisis.
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