NASA has reported a significant decrease in the estimated odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, now at 1.5% for a potential collision in 2032. Previously, the probability stood at 3.1%, marking a record high for an object of this size. The asteroid, measuring between 130 to 300 feet wide, poses a potential threat despite its relatively small size. If it were to collide with Earth, it could cause a substantial explosion in the atmosphere or create an impact crater.
The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies conducted overnight observations, leading to the revised estimates. These observations are part of ongoing efforts to monitor 2024 YR4, which is currently the only known large space rock with any chance of impacting Earth soon. The asteroid was initially spotted late last year and reported to the Minor Planet Center on December 27, 2024.
NASA continues to study the asteroid using ground-based telescopes, with plans to utilize the James Webb Space Telescope for further observations in March 2024. The asteroid will remain visible from Earth through April this year and will reappear in June 2028. These visibility windows allow astronomers to collect crucial data for evaluating any changes in its trajectory.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale currently rates the asteroid at 3 out of 10, indicating a situation that merits careful monitoring. Although the odds have decreased, NASA emphasizes that the probability will continue to evolve as more observations are conducted.
"NASA expects the impact probability to continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made over the coming days and weeks," – NASA
Despite its small size, the potential impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 cannot be underestimated. Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, highlighted the potential devastation if such an asteroid were to hit a major city.
"If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs," – Bruce Betts
The current observation period provides scientists with an opportunity to refine their understanding of the asteroid's path. This ensures that necessary precautions can be taken should the need arise. The use of advanced technologies like the James Webb Space Telescope will enhance the accuracy of these observations.
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